A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
